Casino Theo

mds

We look at theo as our expected loss. It is really the theoretical win for the casino.their expected win, given your bet, time, house advantage, etc. The casino has a formula using all those variables to determine what they expect to win from you. Your available comps are based on a percentage of that amount. Executive Casino Host Hi my name is Theo and I was born and raised in Connecticut. I attended University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) and started my career in the casino business. With almost 10 years of experience in player development in Las Vegas, NV and Blackhawk Colorado, I am now excited to be a part of the Agua Caliente team.

So a very open Casino host answered a question I directly asked him....
Blackjack at .015? 60 hands an hour? Pretty fair?
HOST:
I will use the following theoretical formula:
Theoretical = (Average bet x hours played x hands per hour) x (House Edge / 100)
$750 Ave. X 28 hours X 60 hands X .015 = 18,900 is your theoretical
From that theoretical we consider 35% as your earned comps. 18,900 X .35 = $6,615
This is how we handle comps when using theoretical, we also consider 10% of loss, whatever is higher.
This figures are based on 4 hours of play a day, an average of $ 750 and at the game of Black Jack.
Results vary depending of game, time and average bet.
Casino Theo
geoff
This is about the average to expect. Depending on the property they'll either use the actual loss rate of the blackjack table you play at or they'll use the best rate in the casino (usually the high limit table which the .015 is). 60 Hands an hour is a bit on the low side, but again they want to get as much out as possible.
AcesAndEights
.015? Huh? What am I missing here?
'So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust.' -ontariodealer
odiousgambit

.015? Huh? What am I missing here?


wondering the same thing
Quote: WoO link, bottom of page

Blackjack - 70 hands/hr at 0.75% (for comps)


http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
FleaStiff
The formula seems correct though that 0.15 probably means you were at a very favorable blackjack game in a HIGH LIMIT room.
MOST casinos focus on your 'THEO' and you should always know what your ACTUAL theo is, since their records reflect their impressions and estimates about your 'theo'.
MOST casinos base comps on your theoretical value (ie, expected losses) and only adjust this figure for massive actual losses and less often for massive actual wins. They focus on what you risked rather than how you actually did. Since your long term value to the casino is what you able and willing to RISK, not your personal variance in the short term. The casino focuses on your long term value to them and protects that value by short term actions to keep you happy.
Casinos will generally sweeten your comps a bit for a massive win so as to make you really want to come back. Most casinos will sweeten comps a bit if you had a very impressive and rapid loss so as to make the rest of your stay relatively pleasant particularly if you have a spouse or spouse equivalent with you who expect fancy restaurants rather than fast food joints. However, actual results have to be really spectacular (either as win or loss) before they will depart from their standard formula.
BleedingChipsSlowly
Interesting thread, thanks for starting it, mds. 'Theo' is a mystical thing hosts hint at but never discuss directly with clients; at least that's how it is where I go. I have heard the 'four hours of play a day' mentioned many times over the years. That seems to be the gold standard for defining serious customers. That is, I believe the play-time parameter in the formula is regarded as more important that it's mathematical weight when hosts evaluate a customer. I have tried to educate some folks about how they are evaluated. They whine about how much money they have lost, thinking that is the only measure of worth. My standard line is, 'They only care about how much you bet, your luck or lack of it is your problem, not theirs.' That reasoning is seldom believed.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
CrystalMath
Actually, 0.015 is 1.5%, which is rather high.
MangoJ

MOST casinos base comps on your theoretical value (ie, expected losses) and only adjust this figure for massive actual losses and less often for massive actual wins. They focus on what you risked rather than how you actually did. Since your long term value to the casino is what you able and willing to RISK, not your personal variance in the short term. The casino focuses on your long term value to them and protects that value by short term actions to keep you happy.


Although the comps should based on expected loss rather than actual losses - the house does it for different reasons than stated above. If comps are based on actual losses, the house is widely open for systematic exploitation.
mds

Casino Theoretical Win

Interesting thread, thanks for starting it, mds. 'Theo' is a mystical thing hosts hint at but never discuss directly with clients; at least that's how it is where I go. I have heard the 'four hours of play a day' mentioned many times over the years. That seems to be the gold standard for defining serious customers. That is, I believe the play-time parameter in the formula is regarded as more important that it's mathematical weight when hosts evaluate a customer. I have tried to educate some folks about how they are evaluated. They whine about how much money they have lost, thinking that is the only measure of worth. My standard line is, 'They only care about how much you bet, your luck or lack of it is your problem, not theirs.' That reasoning is seldom believed.


I get that all the time from friends. They lose 3000 in an hour or less and want 3 nights at RFB or RFBI... Just doesn't work that way. Most importantly, to the Casino it's about hours played. As you put in more play time that's when you will lose. You will get comped more but you will lose at the tables. In other words, just pay for your room food and beverage yourself! Why lose 4000 at the tables to get a 200 a night room comped? Short term winners and long term losers. Except if you are an AP. Should be opposite.
FleaStiff

Although the comps should based on expected loss rather than actual losses - the house does it for different reasons than stated above. If comps are based on actual losses, the house is widely open for systematic exploitation.

Actual losses if rather whopping or early in one's stay will merely 'sweeten' the comps that are based on a player's theo. The sweetener is modest since in most circumstances only Theo is considered.

Casino Theoretical


Casino Theo Win

Time at Table can be three hours but it seems four is simply more impressive by a profound amount and it is rumored that at the Venetian the four hour mark is critical.

Casino Theo Formula

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